Solar Lattice

Concept

Energy yield assessment

ID
concept:energy-yield-assessment
IRI
https://solarlattice.org/kb/concept/energy-yield-assessment
Status
active
Also known as
yield simulation, PVsyst simulation, energy estimate, Energy yield prediction, energy yield analysis, yield estimation
Category
Design
Concept kind
technology

An energy yield assessment predicts how much electrical energy a PV plant will produce. It usually gives the average annual output over the plant's lifetime, which is typically taken as 25 to 30 years. It forms the basis for calculating project revenue, and lenders generally want a bankable assessment carried out or reviewed by an independent expert. The method uses hourly or sub-hourly time-step simulation. It takes typical weather data for the site, transposes the irradiance onto the module plane, models how the plant responds to irradiance and temperature, and then applies losses. The losses include near and far shading, soiling or snow, wiring, inverter, mismatch, degradation and downtime. Results are given with confidence levels such as P50 and P90. Because yield follows plane-of-array irradiance closely, uncertainty in the solar resource data dominates the overall uncertainty. Overall uncertainty is often quoted at around 5 percent, but in some cases it can be more than 10 percent. A quick estimate multiplies the specific annual yield for the location by the system's nominal power. After commissioning, the model's expected yield can be compared with the measured specific yield using the performance ratio or the Energy Performance Index.

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Parts

Claims

related_to

c1 drafted · lead P50/P90 energy estimates

Yield predictions are stated with confidence levels; investor-grade reports give at least P50 and P90.

c2 verified · fact Plane-of-array irradiance

Yield depends roughly linearly on plane-of-array irradiance, so resource-data uncertainty dominates prediction uncertainty.

verified by: review-workflowverified on: 2026-10-24

c3 drafted · lead Irradiance transposition

One simulation step converts horizontal irradiation to irradiation on the tilted collector plane for each time step.

c4 drafted · lead Typical meteorological year

Simulations use a time series of typical irradiation and weather, for example an NSRDB TMY3 file.

c5 drafted · lead PVsyst

Example yield simulations were run in PVsyst.

c6 verified · fact Shading loss

A bankable assessment includes a full near and far shading review.

verified by: review-workflowverified on: 2026-10-24

c7 drafted · lead Soiling Losses

Site-specific soiling, snow and the cleaning regime are to be considered.

c8 drafted · lead Performance ratio

PR prediction adds system design and BOS losses to the module energy rating.

c9 drafted · lead Performance loss rate

Module and system degradation affects long-term yield and adds uncertainty.

c10 drafted · lead Specific yield

A simple predicted annual yield is the location's specific annual yield multiplied by the system's nominal power.

c11 drafted · lead Performance index

The Energy Performance Index compares observed specific yield with model-expected yield.

c12 drafted · lead O&M contract

The cleaning regime specified in the O&M contract feeds into the assessment.

Referenced by

Data